Updated afternoon storm timeline Monday, May 16
Monday afternoon May 16, 2022
A band of rain moved through central Maryland this morning, even with the thunder. There has been some industry discussion about this, which may have resulted in one of two things: If it had been stronger, it could have taken some of the energy from the air, limiting the impact of afternoon thunderstorms. This is why there was a delay in issuing any shows for central Maryland.
The sun will return and rapid development is expected as shown in the simulations below. The calendar for our metropolitan area is between 3:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. for any activity that may develop. However, the worst now seems to be expected further east.
From this post: There is NO monitoring for Central Maryland AND Southern PA has moved monitoring EAST of Lancaster via the Philadelphia Metro.
Note: I was wrong in my previous report on The Watch’s expansion into Maryland. But we can still see storms turn violent.
School talk: Howard County Public School in Maryland closed school early, but nearby schools stayed while canceling afternoon activities. This was before a “watch” was issued. There’s a lot of passion about whether it was the right call or not. This can open up a discussion for future events considering safety (better at school or home) and the impact on parents getting up or children coming home. I shared my thoughts in my previous post, but I’d like to explore this with an open mind later.
This post is simply talking about the weather today…
11:45 a.m. to 1:45 p.m.
This push of rain with some thunder in central Maryland came around lunchtime and took some of the energy out of the air.
11:45 a.m. to 1:45 p.m.
Here, we can see the sun bursting west of the cities, which should also return heating and some instability.
There will be more storms developing in the sun, but it may take longer to fully develop – further east.
Snapshots at 1 p.m.
To see if the model I’m using is performing well, I compared this 1pm snapshot of the actual radar to the forecast. As we can see, it’s pretty close…meaning it can handle the environment well in the future.
Doppler radar at 1 p.m.
Model HRRR at 1 p.m.
Radar simulation animation
2 p.m. to 10 p.m.
It still looks impressive. This does NOT rule out some storms with severe parameters in central Maryland between 3 and 5 p.m., but peak results may be east of Metro Baltimore…
I would still be careful on Delmarva up the coast all evening.
Slider -> 2 p.m. to 8 p.m.
UPDATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Again, the morning rain changed the dynamic.
I was wrong about expansion to Maryland, but we still see eastward expansion in Philadelphia metro
Know the clock against the warning
If an alert is issued for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes or flooding, please remember this:
A WATCH means it “could” happen. This is often issued first for a large area.
A WARNING means it is happening NOW! This is a shirt term with a county and cities listed in the path.
Risk of severe storm – starting this morning
The increased risk is level 3 out of 5, a rare status for us, so please take this seriously.
Storms can contain damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
This is a POTENTIAL risk, NOT A PROMISE…
Risk of severe storm: possibility of
Damaging winds over 58 mph
Hail more than 1 inch in diameter
Isolated tornadoes are very possible, but not for everyone. These are random and mostly missed, but all it takes is one!
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*Disclaimer due to frequently asked questions:
I know there are spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it:
I’m dyslexic and discovered it in my sophomore year at Cornell. That didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.
I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The automatic spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make matters worse.
All maps and information are accurate. “Word” stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor who can verify my work when I need it and have it ready to ship on a newsworthy schedule.
I accept this and maybe prove that what you read is really mine…
It’s part of my charm.