Subtropical Storm Nicole prompts hurricane watch on Florida’s east coast
- Subtropical Storm Nicole formed east of the Bahamas early Monday.
- This storm will head for the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States this week.
- Nicole could be a strong tropical storm or possibly at hurricane strength as it approaches Florida.
- Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm watches have been issued in Florida.
- Strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, rip currents and coastal flooding are expected along the southeast coast.
Subtropical Storm Nicole triggered hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge alerts as a prolonged period of coastal flooding, beach erosion, strong winds, high waves, rip currents and heavy rain is expected in Florida and parts of the Southeast this week.
Nicole became the 14th storm of the Atlantic season early Monday morning and is centered several hundred miles east of the Bahamas.
The storm has been classified as subtropical for now, meaning it is a hybrid type system that exhibits both tropical and non-tropical storm characteristics. Nicole is expected to develop into a fully tropical storm in the coming days.
(MORE : Difference Between Subtropical and Tropical)
A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the northwestern Bahamas, including Freeport, Grand Bahama. That means hurricane conditions are expected in the area, in this case by early Wednesday.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Andros, New Providence and Eleuthera Islands in the Bahamas, including Nassau, where tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
A hurricane watch has been issued for eastern Florida from the Space Coast south to Hallandale Beach in Broward County, including Lake Okeechobee.
The tropical storm watches extend south to Miami-Dade County and stretch north from the Space Coast to Glynn County, Georgia, including Daytona Beach and St. Simons Island.
A storm surge watch is also in effect from Glynn County, Georgia to Broward County, Florida, as well as a stretch of the St. Johns River in northeast Florida from East Palatka where it empties into the Atlantic Ocean north of Jacksonville. Beach.
Forecast track, intensity
Nicole is making her turn and will continue her general westward course towards the Bahamas and Florida through mid-week.
Nicole can become a Category 1 hurricane anytime near the northwest Bahamas or before making landfall on Florida’s Atlantic coast late Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning. However, the impacts will arrive long before this happens, as we will detail below.
Nicole will then curve north near or over Florida before being caught by a cold front that turns the storm northeast over the southeastern states or its adjacent coastal waters this weekend.
Southeast Forecast Impacts
Whatever it is called, Nicole will be a large system, with impacts propagating away from its center, arriving earlier and lasting longer than the passage from its center.
Storm surge, coastal flooding, beach erosion
Persistent onshore winds well ahead of Nicole’s center will cause coastal flooding along parts of the southeast coast from Florida to the Carolinas starting Tuesday.
This high tide coastal flooding will increase daily and peak with the storm surge approaching central Nicole early Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center’s maximum storm surge forecast, if it occurs at high tide, is shown below.
With coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles and pounding waves overlapping the storm surge, major beach erosion and infrastructure damage is expected along Florida’s east coast and parts of the coast. Georgian. This is particularly the case for Florida’s east coast damaged by Hurricane Ian late September, as noted by the NWS office in Melbourne, Florida.
Some moderate to major coastal flooding is also possible as far north as the Carolinas, including Charleston, South Carolina, and Tybee Island, Georgia.
Gusty winds are already increasing on the southeast coast due to a pressure differential between Nicole and a strong high pressure system building towards the eastern states.
Storm-force tropical winds could arrive in the northwest Bahamas from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday, and along the east coast of Florida as early as Wednesday. This could make preparations more difficult.
Hurricane conditions, if they occur, could arrive in the northwest Bahamas early Wednesday and in eastern Florida Wednesday evening.
Winds of this magnitude are capable of downing trees and knocking out electricity.
While some bands of local heavy rain are possible along the Florida coast as early as Tuesday, the heaviest rains are expected in Florida starting Wednesday and then expected to spread northward into parts of eastern Florida. Georgia and the Carolinas Thursday through Saturday.
The heaviest rainfall is expected in northeast Florida, including some areas inundated by rainfall from Hurricane Ian. Parts of the St. Johns River are still above flood stage after Ian’s rain about six weeks ago. According to the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center, the St. Johns River could go from a slow decline to a slow rise in levels after the Nicole rains this weekend.
A wide footprint of at least an inch or two of rain is possible from parts of southern Florida to the Carolinas.
This could lead to flash floods and flooding of rivers.
As with most storms that make landfall, some isolated tornadoes are also possible in Nicole’s Wednesday through Friday rainfall bands in Florida and possibly other parts of the Southeast.
Check back with us at weather.com for important updates on Nicole.
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