July 19, 5 p.m. Weather forecast update – Tracking heat waves and more dry weather | New
Photo above: Tom Fisk
Today’s highs came in at 87-93. Looks like we hit 90.0 at 4:54 p.m. at Purdue airport.
Covington was the hot spot with 93.0.
The coolest high was 86.5 at New Market.
Mary Anne Best’s weather station in Remington hit 87.8.
Heat indices peaked at 90-101.
Tonight’s lows will only drop to 70-76 with a south-southwesterly breeze at 10 mph.
The dew points will be between 67 and 69, so it will be rather uncomfortable.
As for tomorrow, the weak surface cold front will pass and south-southwesterly winds will shift to southwest, west, then west-northwest later. Winds will reach 20 to 30 mph.
Dewpoints can climb to 74-77 from noon to early afternoon, then quickly drop to 59-65 behind the front.
Highs of 91-98 are expected with heat indices peaking at 95-110 (highest in the southwest).
The sky looks mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
With mostly clear to clear skies and light westerly winds, lows of 65-69 are expected tomorrow evening followed by highs of 90-94 on Thursday with mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be west to southwest Thursday at 10-15 mph.
With dew points at 58-64, the heat indices will be quite close to the actual air temperature.
However, it becomes humid to muggy by Friday with dew points reaching 72-75. With highs of 91-97, the heat indexes will climb back up to 98-111. This, after morning lows of 65-70.
Skies appear mostly sunny with southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph.
With mostly sunny skies, highs of 95-100 are expected on Saturday with heat indices of 100-114 after morning lows of 72-76.
Winds seem southwest at 10-15 mph.
Went for highs of 95-100 on Sunday (morning lows of 74-78) but the warm ridge will contract in response to the low from Canada towards the Great Lakes.
With southwest winds of 10-20 mph, heat indices are expected to peak at 102-114.
You can see storms breaking out on the outskirts of the upper ridge on Sunday in this simulated IR satellite image via ACC model data:
Sunday evening storms tend to be north of our region with lows here of 75 to 80.
Scattered thunderstorms (40%) are expected along the frontal boundary and outskirts of the upper ridge in our area on Monday.
It feels muggy here, but cooler with highs of 86-94 with heat indexes of 91-109. Winds are south to south-southwest at 10-15 mph.
The best wind fields for severe weather will be over the northeast where the pivoting upper trough will be more pronounced.
It looks like a secondary upper trough will touch the Great Lakes and particularly the northeast on Tuesday.
The best chance of severe weather will again be over the northeastern United States.
Here it looks muggy with a scattering of thunderstorms (40%) and highs 86-93 with heat indices 92-108. South to south-southwest winds prevail at 10-15 mph.
Analysis suggests the front is moving southward on Wednesday, keeping storm outbreaks to the southwest, south and southeast of our region.
Highs of 86 to 90 are expected with heat indices of 90 to 95 as the winds shift to the northwest.
Eventually, the intense upper ridge is expected to move north, but the center will tend to move east, effectively placing the plains in a storm-prone zone.
Thus, the core of the ridge axis moves southeast and then back north until early August.
You can see the core of the extreme ridge over the southeastern Ohio Valley in early to mid-August.
If we are going to get to 100-106, this peak will occur during this period. It would be record heat. All mid to late August records since 1879 are 97-102. The exception is 107 August 12, 1881.
The last date on which a high EXCEEDED 100 was August 27, 1881 (102) in a historic heat wave that still has 6 consecutive records set. Those late August 1881 records have still NOT been broken after all this time.
The last high of 100 in the Purdue data set is September 15, 1939.
The last 95-99? 96 on September 30, 1953.
During our August heat, there also seems to be a lack of precipitation.
The trends are for the worst of summer heat to occur during this period and the fastest worsening of summer drought to occur during this period.
A derecho or two is possible on the outskirts of this extreme heat sink to the northwest, north and northeast of our zone.
This looks like an upper trough that will move the ridge axis core (extreme heat core) westward in late August.
We may have a series of storms and then some cooling for a while.