Hello

Today: Partially sunny. Occasional light showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near shore at 62 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

This evening: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near shore at about 57 to 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Cloudy with likely showers in the morning, then partly sunny with light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near shore at 64 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

This evening: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Rather sunny in the morning, then rather cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partially sunny. Costs. Light showers likely in the morning, then light showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 87. Winds east up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Light showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partially sunny. Costs. Light showers likely in the morning, then light showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 87. Winds east up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Light showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 87. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

big south island

Today: Quite sunny. Costs. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

This evening: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Quite sunny. Costs. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

puna

Today: Partially sunny. Occasional light showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near shore at 62 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

This evening: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near shore at about 57 to 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Friday: Cloudy with likely showers in the morning, then partly sunny with light showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near shore at 64 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Costs. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs from 82 to 89 near shore to 68 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

This evening: partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near shore to 52 to 58 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs from 82 to 89 near shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Synopsis

A broad area of ​​high pressure will remain anchored well to the north of the islands for the remainder of the work week, before slowly beginning to drift eastward this weekend. This pattern will sustain moderate to gusty easterly trade winds across the state through the weekend. The wet trade wind flow will increase showers over the islands this morning, while varying amounts of moisture drifting across the region will keep the chance of showers over the mainly windward and mauka sections throughout the weekend.

Discussion

The latest radar data and surface observations continue to show showers moving across the western and central islands this morning, particularly in the windward areas and in the channels between the islands, as a band of low-level moisture continues to flow into the area from the east. This morning’s precipitation reports show the highest precipitation amounts over parts of Kauai and Oahu, with some reports approaching a third of an inch. Much weaker and more sporadic radar returns were noted over Maui County and the Big Island early this morning, while isolated showers continue to drift over some downwind areas. The latest model guidance and satellite images of the layer’s precipitating water suggest that the low-level moisture that crossed the islands this morning will continue this afternoon. This pattern will keep showers along prime windward areas, with low level current flow supporting the greatest areal coverage of showers to linger over Molokai, Oahu and Kauai through Friday.
Otherwise, high pressure well upstate will maintain breezy to locally strong trades through the weekend and persist into early next week. This pattern will continue to generate showers primarily in windward areas, but a slightly drier trend expected on Sunday will help reduce shower coverage and intensity early next week.
Some tropical humidity may increase across the islands, particularly to the windward of the Big Island and east of Maui on Wednesday, in response to the dissipation of remnants of TC Bonnie. The latest GFS and ECMWF models remain reasonably consistent with the general trend of this waning feature, but there remains uncertainty over the timing and trajectory of this feature, although it has continued with greater chances of showers occurring. develop next week. Stay tuned for future forecasts and updates regarding the potential for precipitation next week.

Aviation

A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate to gusty trade winds in the forecast for the first half of next week. Bands of cloud from a dissipating front are moving across the islands this morning, enhancing showers as they drift into the islands on trade winds. The highest chance of precipitation is forecast for windward and mountainous areas, with some of the heaviest showers reaching downwind airfields mainly in the early morning hours. Periods of MVFR conditions are to be expected over windward aerodromes throughout the morning, with VFR conditions mainly forecast elsewhere.
Sierra AIRMET in effect today for low cloud and showers moving into the windward and mountainous sections of each island producing periods of mountain darkening. Mountain obscurations will diminish in coverage later this morning into the afternoon. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level mechanical turbulence downwind of the island mountains due to gusty trade winds. This AIRMET will probably continue until Friday.

Marine

Strong high pressure north of the islands will keep moderate to locally strong exchanges in place through Friday. Trading will then rally to fresh to high levels over the weekend into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the windiest areas around Maui and the Big Island until 6 p.m. Monday. The SCA may need to be expanded to include additional areas over the weekend.
No significant swell is forecast for the next few days. East Coast surf will remain slightly below normal through Friday, before rising to near-seasonal levels over the weekend through the middle of next week as trading strengthens above and upstream of the island chain. Surf on the south shore will remain light through Saturday, before a long-period southerly swell arrives and boosts surf to near or slightly above summer average from Sunday through the middle of next week. Eastern Pacific Hurricane Bonnie could send us a small, long period easterly swell early next week.

Watchdogs/Warnings/HFO Advisories

Small craft advisory until 6:00 p.m. HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Lee Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Big Island Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Big Island Helicopter Tours today!

Data reproduced with kind permission from NOAA.gov