Hello

Today: Fairly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near shore at 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near shore at around 48 to 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

On Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near shore at 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northerly winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near shore to about 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near shore to about 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

On Saturday: Quite sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near shore to about 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

On Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 61 near shore to 47 to 55 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

On Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

big south island

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 64 near shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

On Saturday: Quite sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

puna

Today: Fairly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near shore at 62 to 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 62 near shore at around 48 to 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

On Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near shore at 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. Northerly winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 64 to 69 near shore to 44 to 52 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

On Saturday: Quite sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Winds northeast up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Synopsis

Expect winds to pick up a bit today as high pressure builds upstate. Winds will increase further to moderate strength this weekend and push moisture from an area on the windward slopes, followed by a brief drying out late Sunday through Monday. Another increase in trade wind showers is possible late Monday and Tuesday.

Discussion

A ridge near Kauai will keep the winds light this morning. Expect nightly land breezes to give way to daytime sea breezes this afternoon, particularly over the western islands, as light trade winds begin to spread westward. Cloud and shower coverage will increase in areas of mauka as the sea breeze develops, followed by clearing overnight. Models show that surface high pressure will build upstate while a front stalls and begins to dissipate just north of Kauai. Conditions will be fairly dry at first, but dissipating moisture from the front could affect upwind Kauai and Oahu starting tonight.
Trade winds will continue to increase to moderate strength on Saturday as high pressure holds upstate. Winds will shift to the northeast on Sunday as a weak surface low approaches from the east. Moisture from the dissipated front is expected to dissipate leading to less showers over all the islands Sunday afternoon. A south-tracking upper low in the eastern part of the state will produce increased northerly winds over the high peaks of the Big Island.
Expect the trade winds to stay in place well into next week, possibly becoming windy and gusty by Wednesday. The surface low will collapse, but its remaining moisture will fuel windward precipitation for parts of the state late Monday and Tuesday, especially for the Big Island and Maui. Expect increased trade winds mid-week as a strengthening area of ​​high pressure passes upstate.

Aviation

A cold front approaching the islands from the northwest will keep a ridge of high pressure in place over the state. Stability below this ridge will limit shower activity today. Large scale light winds will allow local land breezes to continue this morning. Winds will begin to shift back to the trade winds today with persistent sea breezes over the sheltered terrain of the western slopes of each island. Isolated showers remain in the forecast mainly along the convergence bands between the returning trade winds and the afternoon sea breezes.
No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected.

Marine

Light and variable winds will continue today over the western end of the state, while a return of moderate to cool trading is expected over the eastern end. Trading is expected to fill across the state tonight through the weekend, potentially reaching the strong category over generally windier locations around Maui County and the Big Island as high pressure builds at north of the region following a passing front. Trading could shift to a more northeasterly direction early next week as the islands position themselves between the passing low pressure to the southeast and the ridge to the north.
The surf along the north and west facing coasts will tend to increase throughout the day today as a new west-northwesterly swell forms along the eastern range. ‘he is. Sightings from offshore buoys (51101/51001) increased rapidly overnight (mostly in line with forecast levels). This swell has already reached the Hanalei buoy and should start to appear at the Waimea buoy (it’s back in action – thanks to the folks at PacIOOS) during the morning hours, starting around or at sunrise. Indications describe peak surf tonight through Saturday above warning levels (Category XL) followed by a gradual downward trend through the second half of the weekend. The warning was issued for the north and west facing shores of the small islands and will need to be extended to include the leeward section of the large island in today’s afternoon package. A small craft advisory has been issued to the western end of the state to account for seas that are expected to reach the 10ft threshold today, and will also need to be extended to the island chain later in the year. daytime.
Although a downtrend is expected over the second half of the weekend, another long-period west-northwest impulse arriving Sunday evening will support a return to the advisory level (if it dips below Sunday ) surfing monday. Heights are then expected to drop below the advised levels for the northern and western shores from Tuesday through the second half of next week.
Surf along east-facing coasts may tend to increase over the weekend in response to a tight gradient that has set in between low pressure centered more than 1000 miles east of Hilo and high pressure to the north. Recent ASCAT data showed a bundle of strong to high winds concentrated across the state north of the low. Indications are that this easterly swell will arrive Saturday evening and then linger into early next week before easing.

Watchdogs/Warnings/HFO Advisories

High surf warning until 6 p.m. HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small craft advisory until 6:00 p.m. HST Saturday for Northwest Kauai Waters, Windward Waters of Kauai, Leeward Waters of Kauai, Kauai Channel, Windward Waters of Oahu.

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Data reproduced with kind permission from NOAA.gov