Friday Afternoon Storm Update – Just in Time
July 1, 2022
Friday afternoon update
The heat and humidity are up to expectations today. In fact, while I mentioned that storms start early, they are beyond the realization of forecast models. But if you follow my updates, it has been for months.
Here’s a look at the early afternoon comparison of the radar snapshot and the model plots or misses. I have included a simulation for good measure to compare to live radar and lightning widget.
Alert Reminder:
Severe thunderstorm warnings will be issued by NOAA when a storm can contain winds over 58 mph, large hail over 1 inch in diameter and anyone could produce dangerous lightning or flash flooding .
No watches have been issued for our area at this time, but there will likely be more warnings in central Maryland and southern Pennsylvania for a few hours.
1:00 p.m. radar snapshot
This is the radar view I saw when I got back from training today.
The storms kicked in, which seemed to be earlier than the model’s guidance.
Compare to models in the Shore range
The HRRR model is the fast update and had the cluster west of Frederick, MD. But it was still missing and the cells were expanding New Westminster to York and Lancaster.
The 3km NAM model was even more devoid of thunderstorms, but oddly developed more during the afternoon. This is the product simulation I have below.
2 p.m. snapshots
Temperatures
Doppler Radar
Radar loop 1 p.m. to 2 p.m.
So far this has been a Frederick in Westminster in. MD in York and Lancaster PA. But it will expand to the east.
Hail was 1/2″ to over 1″
Radar simulation 2:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.
This is the NAM 3 Km model, which is already wrong. But we can use this as a guide to timing the eruption in metropolitan areas.
My suggestion is between 3:00 and 6:00 PM in the Baltimore metro, then fades as the sun sets.
Southern Maryland (south of Annapolis) and The Beaches are expected to miss this round today.
Live Radar and Lightning Widget
Saturday
More humidity means a warmer morning, but maybe less hot in the afternoon with thunderstorms. Severe weather risk is centered in our region.
Risk of severe storm
Morning
Afternoon
Radar simulation from 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.
Seems like a problem mostly between the mountains and I-95/Metro Baltimore. It can reach Annapolis and Easton around 10 p.m.
Further south and towards the beaches should remain dry.
Look forward:
Sunday will be cooler, but we “may” see showers lingering on the beaches. Overnight model tips have moved further south, but I want to see one more run before I drop this chance.
For now, the 4th of July is looking good!
Sunday
It’s paddle season
Book your Kayak or Paddle Boat Adventure in the North Chesapeake Bay
Beach forecast
7-day forecast
After thunderstorms which could become violent on Saturday, they will be followed by a cooler Sunday. Monday July 4 is expected to warm again, but remain dry.
Another round of strong to severe storms is possible on Tuesday.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 to November 30
NOAA Hurricane Forecast 2022 – Above Normal Again
Colorado State University Forecast
Atlantic Hurricane Forecast
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I know there are spelling and grammatical errors. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you might have missed it:
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