Delta variant infections double every 11 days in England, study finds – The New Indian Express
LONDON: The number of people infected with the coronavirus is increasing rapidly in England, doubling every 11 days, coinciding with the Delta variant of COVID-19 becoming dominant in the country, a new study reported on Thursday.
Imperial College London led the Real-Time Assessment of Community Transmission Analysis (REACT-1), based on more than 100,000 home swab tests performed between May 20 and June 7, estimates that 0.15% of people have the deadly virus, or about 1 in 670.
He found that the link between infections, hospitalizations and deaths had weakened since February, but since the end of April, the trend has reversed for hospitalizations.
?? We found strong evidence of exponential growth in infection from late May to early June in the REACT-1 study, with an average doubling time of 11 days for England, ?? said Professor Paul Elliott, REACT program director at the Imperial Oil School of Public Health.
This data coincides with the fact that the Delta variant is becoming dominant and shows the importance of continuing to monitor infection rates and variants of concern in the community. he said.
The results come days after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a one-month delay in ending lockdown restrictions, citing the growing number of cases of the Delta variant identified for the first time in India.
?? These results highlight the difficult context in which we made the difficult decision to delay step 4 of the roadmap outside containment, ?? British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.
?? Cases are increasing now, but thanks to our incredible immunization program and improved response program, including state-of-the-art testing, we have the tools to stop the spread of this virus.
We all need to keep our cool a little longer as the rollout of our vaccine continues and I urge everyone to continue to observe the hands, faces, space and fresh air, and to ensure that you receive both doses of the vaccine for the best possible protection? he said.
Scientists in the Imperial Study estimate that the reproduction number, or R-number, of the deadly virus is now well above one at 1.44, meaning that 10 infected people would pass the virus to 14 others on average, resulting in a rapid growth of the epidemic.
Most infections occur in children and young adults, but they also increase in older people, increasing at a similar rate in those over 50 and under 50.
Even though we see the highest prevalence of infection in younger people who are less susceptible to COVID-19, if this growth continues it will lead to an increase in infections in older and more vulnerable people because vaccines are not 100% effective and not everyone has been fully vaccinated ??? said Professor Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at the Imperial.
?? This would lead to more hospitalizations and deaths, and risk straining the NHS, which is why it is essential that people accept their vaccine offer and continue to play by the rules, ?? he said.
The REACT-1 study is an ongoing pandemic study, led by Imperial and carried out in partnership with Ipsos MORI, which tracks current coronavirus infections in the community by testing randomly selected individuals each month over a period of approximately two weeks.
For this last round, 108,911 people swab at home and their samples were analyzed by PCR test ?? 135 of them were positive, the vast majority (about 90 percent) of which were the Delta variant at the end of the study cycle.
This, he notes, is consistent with data from Public Health England (PHE) indicating that the variant accounts for 90% of infections.
In the study’s previous round of testing, infection patterns were quite similar across the country, but the latest data showed substantial regional variation.
The highest prevalence was found in the Northwest at 0.26%, down from 0.11% in the previous cycle, while the Southwest had the lowest at 0.05%, down slightly from at 0.07%.
The study also followed the relationship between infections, hospitalizations and deaths in different age groups.
Since February, the link between infections, hospitalizations and deaths has weakened among people aged 65 and over, while there has been a recent reversal of these trends for those under 65, leading to a recent reversal of these trends. probably reflects the decline in vaccination rates in this group.