Blog: Cool & Dry today. First functionalities in the tropics.
Locally, we will have good weather today. A cool front settled in our area yesterday and brought us some very comfortable air during the evening. This border will stop today inland. We also have high pressure just to the west.
We will have a cool, steady breeze from the northeast all day. We will also have a lot of sun. The humidity is not too bad and high temperatures will increase in the upper 70s with a few 80s inland. It is beautiful and dry with dew points in the 40’s and 50’s. Pollen levels are low to moderate. So go and enjoy the weather if you can!
Tomorrow, the front will push off. We will have a light westerly wind. This will allow the heat to return from the west.
High temperatures will reach the mid-80s. There may even be a few 90s inland. The sky will be partly cloudy. We will be roughly the same on Sunday with high temperatures rising a degree or two. So now our next chance for rain isn’t until Monday. Even then, it is only a small chance. A cold front will cool temperatures again through the 1970s on Monday and Tuesday, but we will warm up later next week. There may be a few showers on Wednesday, but we’ll see.
We are heading for perhaps the driest May on record. Take a look at the top 10 driest May on record:
According to the National Weather Service, the driest month of May was in 1880 with only 0.54 ″ of rain. So far in May we’ve only had 0.34 ″. Wow! The grass is really starting to turn brown.
No tropical system is heading our way, but there are two characteristics that I am looking at. There is weak tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico.
It has a low to moderate chance of forming before moving on land somewhere between Texas and Louisiana. However, the problem is that they have had a lot of flooding in this area recently, and this feature will bring them more rain. Maybe flooding.
The other disturbance is near Bermuda. This has a good chance of forming over the next few days or two. It will likely get a little closer to Bermuda by tomorrow as it will become a subtropical storm.
It will be rainy and windy, but it should be fine overall. The system will then move northeast from Sunday to Monday. Upper level winds (wind shear) will increase. This should weaken the system as it moves northeast.
While it will stay at sea it will send waves / swells towards the coast. This will create good conditions for the surfers, but it will be difficult for the swimmers. There is a high threat to rip currents today on local beaches.
The high threat could continue over the weekend. Stay tuned for updates.
The forecast for the hurricane season comes from NOAA. They claim an above average season. Remember that the average was recently updated to update the climatology for the last decades.
While they are claiming an above average season, they are not claiming such a busy year as they were last year. Dear God, I hope not. I’m not big on tropical season forecasts, but there are plenty that follow them closely.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler